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Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.
Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries
Europe’s central bankers are trying to get out of the shadow of the United States. Now, European Central Bank policymakers are emphasizing how much the inflation problem has eased in the eurozone. All week, Europe’s policymakers reiterated their growing confidence that high inflation was dissipating in the eurozone and that their 2 percent inflation target was in sight. The E.C.B., which sets interest rates for all 20 countries that use the euro, has signaled it could cut rates at its next policy meeting in early June. “We’re clearly in a disinflation process,” said Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of Ireland’s central bank and one of the 26 members of the E.C.B.’s governing council.
Persons: “ We’re, , Gabriel Makhlouf Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: United States, Washington, Ireland’s, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB’s Holzmann says biggest threat to strategy is the geopolitical situation in the Middle EastEuropean Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann, who also serves as Austria's central bank governor, says geopolitical risk is the biggest threat to the ECB’s strategy.
Persons: Holzmann, Robert Holzmann Organizations: East European Central Bank
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with German central bank chief Joachim NagelEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel speaks to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the IMF Spring Meetings taking place in Washington, D.C.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Joachim Nagel European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Karen Tso Organizations: Joachim Nagel European Central Bank Locations: Washington ,
Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.
Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London
Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, , Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East
Dollar keeps tight ranges ahead of Fed, jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
A Chinese 100 yuan banknote, a 1 U.S. dollar bill and a 50 euro banknote are lying on a table. The dollar was steady in the Asian morning, with market participants moving cautiously ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that kicks off on Tuesday. "I suspect that the FOMC meeting will not be as dovish as current market pricing suggests," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The data will give another indication of whether the world's largest economy remains strong after the Fed's aggressive hiking campaign. Sterling was last trading at $1.2716, holding firm ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting this week.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Matt Simpson, hasn't, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang Organizations: U.S . Department of Labor, U.S ., Central Bank, Bank, DBS, Fed Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Down to Davos
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets fell, led lower by declines in Hong Kong stocks, as Japan shares cooled off from their record-breaking rally. Georgieva told CNBC on the sidelines of Davos that the world's second-largest economy is facing both short-term and long-term challenges. [PRO] Morgan Stanley picks 'alpha' stocksAlpha stocks are those that can beat the benchmark index, and Morgan Stanley picked its favorite plays in Asia.
Persons: Martin Luther King Day, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Robert Holzmann, it's, Mario Centeno, Georgieva Organizations: CNBC, ECB, European Central Bank, Economic, International Monetary Fund, Alpha Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, Japan, Davos, Switzerland, China, Pacific
CNBC Daily Open: A look across the Atlantic
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. ECB could defy marketsEuropean Central Bank policymaker and hawk Robert Holzmann said the ECB may not deliver any interest rate cuts this year. Holzmann told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he sees a possibility of zero rate cuts this year, defying market expectations. Georgieva told CNBC on the sidelines of Davos that the world's second-largest economy is facing both short-term and long-term challenges.
Persons: Martin Luther King, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Georgieva Organizations: CNBC, Economic, Martin Luther King Day, Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Germany, China
European Central Bank policymaker and Governor of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann addresses the media in Vienna, Austria, March 23, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsVIENNA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers should discuss at their meeting next month whether to wind down bond reinvestments under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme early, Austrian Governor Robert Holzmann said in remarks published on Friday. "My suggestion would be to reduce reinvestments step by step as of March," Holzmann told Austrian newspaper Die Presse. Those reinvestments are slated to run until the end of 2024 but some policymakers have made the case for starting to wind them down early. Reporting by Francois Murphy; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, Leonhard Foeger, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Francois Murphy, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Austrian National Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Austrian, Die Presse, Thomson Locations: Vienna, Austria, Austrian
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 21, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.4% to close out the week with a 0.9% gain as investors focused on corporate earnings and the prospect of rate cuts. Euro zone government bond yields were set to close the week higher as investors balanced recession fears against comments from European Central Bank policymakers pushing against market expectations for rate cuts in 2024. For the week, real estate (.SX86P) shares lagged while media (.SXMP) and retail stocks (.SXRP) were the top performers. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Wintershall, they're, Giles Coghlan, Coghlan, Christian Lindner, Germany's DAX, Ankika Biswas, Bansari, Sonia Cheema, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, BASF, U.S, European Central Bank, Shoppers, Bloomberg News, Abu, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, Barclays, German, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Abu Dhabi, Israel, Bengaluru
Schamotta also said market participants were maintaining relatively high dollar positions before liquidity dries up before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The Fed minutes showed Fed officials said inflation remained well above their target but noted that rates would need to be raised only if new data showed insufficient progress on reducing price pressures. The greenback extended gains after the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment showed U.S. consumers' inflation expectations rose for a second straight month in November. The dollar index rose 0.64% at 104.17 and was on track for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Oct 24. The Japanese yen weakened 0.86% versus the greenback at 149.66 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.246, down 0.65% on the day.
Persons: Karl Schamotta, Schamotta, CME's, Mario Centeno, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Will Dunham Organizations: Labor Department, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit's Big, Federal, Fed, University of Michigan's, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Toronto, U.S
ECB hawks push back on early rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"It would be unwise to start cutting interest rates too soon," Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech. Austria's Robert Holzmann was even more explicit, arguing that the second quarter was simply too soon for a rate cut. Asked if he ruled out an interest rate cut in the second quarter of next year, he said: "That would be a bit early." The ECB held rates unchanged in October, snapping a streak to ten straight rate hikes, fuelling market bets that its record-breaking tightening streak is now over and the next move is a cut. Instead of easing policy, the ECB should tighten further, Wunsch argued, by ending early its bond purchases in the 1.7 trillion euro Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Ann Saphir, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Francois Murphy, Kirsten Donovan, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, FRANKFURT, VIENNA, Belgian
LISBON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno, who is under fire from the opposition over an invitation by the outgoing prime minister to replace him as premier, said on Monday he never accepted the offer but was just asked to ponder on the matter. Portuguese opposition parties on Friday argued that such an invitation compromised the political independence of a central bank governor. The Bank of Portugal's ethics committee is expected to meet on Monday to evaluate his conduct. Prime Minister Antonio Costa stepped down on Tuesday over an investigation into alleged illegalities in his government's handling of lithium and hydrogen projects and a large-scale data centre. Centeno announced his departure from the finance ministry in June 2020, during Costa's second term, and was nominated to head the bank a month later.
Persons: Mario Centeno, Antonio Costa, illegalities, Costa, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Centeno, Rebelo de Sousa, Olli Rehn, Balazs Koranyi, Francesco Canepa, Andrei Khalip, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bank of Portugal, Socialist, European Central Bank policymaker, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: LISBON, Portuguese, Bank of Portugal, ECB's, Finland, Frankfurt
LISBON (Reuters) - The Bank of Portugal's ethics committee will meet on Monday to evaluate the conduct of governor Mario Centeno, whose independence came into question after the departing prime minister proposed him as a potential replacement, local media said. Local media reported that Centeno had agreed to let his name go forward, raising concerns that his links to the PS remained strong and calling into question his independence if he remained central bank governor. Rebelo de Sousa rejected Costa's proposal and called the election instead. Centeno's quick move from the finance ministry to the central bank in July 2020, during Costa's second term, had previously raised eyebrows. A central bank spokesperson said it was up to the committee to comment on the matter.
Persons: Mario Centeno, Antonio Costa, illegalities, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Costa, Rebelo de Sousa, Centeno, Costa's, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Negocios, Catarina Demony, Sergio Goncalves, Kevin Liffey Organizations: Bank, Socialist, European Central Bank policymaker, Local, Social Democrats, Eco, Jornal Locations: LISBON
ECB's Nagel says inflation has not been defeated yet
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank president and European Central Bank policymaker, prepares for an interview at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsFRANKFURT, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank must keep interest rates sufficiently high for long enough because inflation in the euro zone has not been conquered despite a significant fall in the past year, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday. "Our tight monetary policy is working, but we must not let up too soon," Nagel, the Bundesbank's president, said in remarks prepared for delivery at an economic think-tank in Berlin. "Rather, the key interest rates will have to remain at a sufficiently high level for a sufficiently long time." Reporting By Francesco Canepa Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Ann Saphir, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Francesco Canepa, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Berlin
Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank president and European Central Bank policymaker, prepares for an interview at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Oct 19 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Thursday that he assumes it will be possible to pay with the digital euro in roughly five years. The president of Germany's Bundesbank told the Deutschlandfunk radio station that the digital version of the euro, which will let people in the 20 countries that share the single currency make electronic payments securely and free of charge, was "a huge IT project." Reporting by Frank Siebelt, Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by Friederike HeineOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Ann Saphir, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Frank Siebelt, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: European Central Bank policymaker, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
MARRAKECH, Oct 13 (Reuters) - European Central Bank policymakers are planning a springtime push to cut interest payments made to commercial banks, in part to recoup some of the costs associated with a decade worth of stimulus, sources familiar with discussions said. That would mean overall interest payments to lenders - which still earn the ECB deposit rate, currently 4%, on other excess cash parked with the central bank - would be reduced further. But the ECB rejected the proposal in July, partly on resistance from its Executive Board, the sources said. The board's key argument is that excess liquidity is distributed unevenly across the euro zone and raising the ratio would put an excessive burden on smaller banks with a larger portion of deposits. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing argued that the change would add to banks' financial burdens and restrict their lending options.
Persons: Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Latvia's Martin Kazaks, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Holzmann, France's Francois Villeroy de, Pierre Wunsch, We're, Schnabel, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing, Tom Sims, John Stonestreet Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Austrian, Barclays, Deutsche Bank CEO Christian, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH
Dollar hovers near two-week lows ahead of inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. The report comes ahead of the release on Thursday of September's consumer price index data, which is expected to show inflation moderated last month. "On the flip side, an upside surprise will likely encourage markets to reprice higher the chance the Federal Open Market Committee will follow through on its projected 25 basis point hike." Futures markets are pricing in a 26% chance of a 25 basis point hike in the December meeting and a 9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in November meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.03% to 149.11 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2311, flat on the day.
Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Ryan Brandham, Carol Kong, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Validus Risk Management, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, North America, Tokyo, Singapore
FRANKFURT, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Divided European Central Bank policymakers opted for raising interest rates at their latest meeting to show resolve in the fight against inflation even though evidence was inconclusive, the account of the gathering showed on Thursday. The ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4.0% at the Sept 13-14 meeting but signalled that its 10th hike in a 14-month-long effort to bring down inflation was likely to be the last as the economy slowed. The ECB's account of the meeting showed the decision was a "close call" given "considerable uncertainty", with some indicators suggesting a 3.75% deposit rate might have also done the job. But in the end the proposal to raise interest rates by 25 basis point was supported by "a solid majority" of the 26 members of the Governing Council. Borrowing costs have eased slightly this week on the back of Federal Reserve officials talking down the need for further interest rate increases and nervousness about the Israel-Hamas conflict spreading more widely in the Middle East.
Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Governing, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Italy, Israel
ECB's Stournaras interview with Reuters
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
Member of the ECB governing council and Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras talks during an interview with Reuters in Athens, Greece, October 11, 2023. The rise in bond yields means that financial conditions are even tighter Than before given monetary policy decisions. A: I think we should act only based on monetary policy reasons and justifications. And for the moment I see no reason why we should tighten monetary policy now because increasing the minimum requirements will imply monetary policy tightening. So, we have a pipeline of monetary policy tightening which has been decided in the past.
Persons: Yannis Stournaras, Louisa Gouliamaki, European Central Bank policymaker Yannis Stournaras, it's, I'm, reinvestments, Francesco Canepa Organizations: Bank of Greece, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European Central Bank policymaker, ECB, European Commission, Governing, Thomson Locations: Athens, Greece, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, China, Europe, Israel, Italy
Because higher yields signal a rise in borrowing costs, the selloff has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of Italy's huge debt pile. Meloni has said she is not worried by the rise in yields, saying: "Italy is solid." Most of the sources said there is no hurry to end reinvestments or even to formally open this discussion on the policy-making Governing Council. Some argued that PEPP reinvestments should end before any talk of a rate cut, now expected by markets around mid-2024. Spreads of Italian 10-year bonds over their German counterparts are up roughly 30 basis points this month in their biggest jump since last December.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Giorgia, Christine Lagarde, Meloni, PEPP, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy
A view shows the placards of the political parties in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building in Frankfurt, Germany, September 14, 2023. The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already raised interest rates 10 times to record levels but inflation remains well above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that policymakers had not discussed the bond-buying schemes at their latest policy meeting. She described the PEPP as the ECB's "first line of defence" to preserve policy transmission - central bank jargon for bond market stability in the most indebted countries. Slovenian central bank governor Bostjan Vasle recently backed selling bonds bought under the ECB's older Asset Purchase Programme, which is less flexible than the PEPP.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Christine Lagarde, Bostjan Vasle, Peter Kazimir, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy, FRANKFURT, Athens, Slovenian, PEPP, Sintra
Dollar shines as US economy outperforms, yen at 10-month low
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. The greenback scaled a fresh top of 147.875 yen in early Asia trade, its highest since last November. That did little to help the Australian dollar , which was still down 0.15% at $0.6373, while the New Zealand dollar last bought $0.58735, with both languishing near their recent 10-month lows. The offshore yuan fell marginally to 7.3255 per dollar, while its onshore counterpart was pinned near the previous session's 10-month low. "As we have seen in the past, real intervention barely reverses the course of the yen sustainably."
Persons: Florence Lo, Sterling, Joseph Capurso, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Governor Bailey, Capurso, Saxo, Charu Chanana, Rae Wee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, China's, Beijing, Asia, U.S, ASIA, Japan
Dollar shines as U.S. economy outperforms, yen plumbs 10-month low
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The greenback scaled a fresh top of 147.865 yen in early Asia trade, its highest since last November. The Japanese currency last bought 147.76 per dollar, having weakened past the closely-watched 145 threshold for nearly a month now. "Yen's verbal intervention begs the question whether a real intervention is likely," said Saxo market strategist Charu Chanana. "As we have seen in the past, real intervention barely reverses the course of the yen sustainably." The Australian dollar slid 0.05% to $0.63795, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.01% to $0.5869, with both languishing near their recent 10-month lows.
Persons: Sterling, Joseph Capurso, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Governor Bailey, Capurso, Saxo, Charu Chanana Organizations: greenback, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ECB, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Asia, U.S, Japan
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